Even if Pujols stays in St. Louis, market will be intriguing
Kathy Kmonicek / APJose Reyes is just 28 and just won a battling title, so expect him to?get big money in free agency despite a history of injuries.
OPINION
By Tony DeMarco
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 11:04 p.m. ET Nov. 3, 2011
 | Tony DeMarco |
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While Albert Pujols technically is on the market, many factors point to him staying in St. Louis as one of those icon Hall of Famer-with-one-team players.
The latest is a 10-foot bronze statue of him unveiled on Wednesday outside his St. Louis restaurant on Wednesday, when he again called St. Louis, 'the best city to play baseball'.
With the Yankees and Red Sox not in this picture, barring something unexpected, the Cardinals' offer will either be the highest, or close enough to it that Pujols will re-sign.
Still, there are a handful of elite-level talents on the market, as well as some solid pitching options. A look at the best of who's available, some potential bargains and potential regrettable signings.
The top five:
1. Prince Fielder: Even if you include Pujols in the rankings, their age difference ? Pujols 32, Fielder, 27 ? makes the latter the better option. Fielder is hitting the market with his peak years ahead of him; Pujols will enter the decline phase of his career within a couple of seasons.
That said, the Fielder concerns are obvious: He is at best an average defender, and while he made a concerted effort to get in better shape this season, he still is 30-40 pounds overweight. And you wonder how hard he'll continue those efforts once he has $150 million or so guaranteed.
Still, the market will be there ? possibly the Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, among others ? and somebody gladly will accept the longer-term risk for some immediate elite-level production. Pujols would be No. 2 on this list if he makes a surprise exit from St. Louis.
2. Yu Darvish: When you include the posting fee it's going to take to get sole negotiating rights to sign the Japanese League right-hander, he's going to be pricier than C.J. Wilson.
If you don't know much about Darvish, he's 25, and went 18-6-1.44 with 276 strikeouts and 36 walks for the Nippon Ham Fighters this season. He's been on scouts' radar since the 2009 World Baseball Classic. He also breaks the mold of Japanese League pitchers in that he's listed at 6-5, and in fact is half-Japanese, half-Iranian.
You have to figure the Yankees and Red Sox will get involved here, as both need starting pitching. The Rangers also are expected to be players, certainly if they don't retain Wilson, and even if they do.
3. Jose Reyes: The only question here is health. He's 28, won the NL batting title at .337, is a .292 career hitter, can steal 30-plus bases, score 100 runs, hit double figures in home runs and play rangy defense. What team wouldn't be helped by all that from their leadoff hitter/shortstop?
NL teams with a need include the Giants, Braves, Cardinals, Phillies if they don't retain Jimmy Rollins, Dodgers and Marlins, so the potential is here for a deal that is too long given Reyes' injury history. But he's going to get paid.
4. Jimmy Rollins: At 32 and with a history of leg issues of his own, he'll clearly be the consolation prize for somebody who doesn't land Reyes. He should remain a high-level shortstop for another two-three seasons. The Giants and going back to his Oakland roots is a logical call, but Atlanta makes sense, too.
5 (tie). C.J. Wilson/Mark Buehrle: Wilson has proven his durability in two seasons as a starter, and doesn't have the wear-and-tear of a typical 30-year-old because of four-plus seasons spent in the bullpen. His bad postseason won't hurt him as much as you might think. But if he doesn't stay in Texas, he needs to be careful here: Going to the wrong place (read: New York, Boston) could severely affect his numbers.
At 32, Buehrle is only two years older than Wilson, although it seems like he's several years older. The durability and consistency here is remarkable: At least 200 innings for 11 consecutive years, and considering he's a control pitcher who never had relied on velocity, there's no reason to think he can't continue rolling along for a handful of successful seasons.
Potential bargains
1. Ryan Madson: Reliever contracts are the salary structure's latest growth area, but of all the veteran closers/setup available this winter ? Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero, Heath Bell, etc. ? here's your under-the-radar most-effective choice. Madson has proven he can pitch in either role in pressure situations, and has a changeup that makes him effective against lefties and righties.
2. Edwin Jackson: Great stuff, very durable, but not always great results. He's not a $10-million-a-year pitcher, but there's a lot to like, especially if he learns a little more finesse, and especially in the right home ballpark.
3. Aaron Hill: That 36-homer season in 2009 is a thing of the past, and that's probably a good thing, since scouts tell you that it made him too pull-conscious. He finished strongly (.313) in Arizona, who chose not to pick up an $8-million option. But he's 29, is a good defensive second baseman, also can play third, and has pop in his bat.
4. David Ortiz: Depending on what it costs, of course, but Big Papi is done with the five-year, $65-million deal, and showed there's still something left in the tank. The power/on-base percentage combo still makes him a threat.
5. Coco Crisp: Granted, there is an injury risk here, but when this guy plays, he's a force. A move out of Oakland can only help his offensive numbers. He makes sense in Washington, but there are other fits.
Risky business
1. Heath Bell: It shouldn't strike you as curious that Bell's stated first preference is to stay a Padre. He's a flyball pitcher who fits perfectly in Petco Park (what pitcher doesn't, really?), and going anywhere else will limit his effectiveness.
2. Aramis Ramirez: Declining a $16-million player option for 2012 could be a wise move by agent Paul Kinzer, as they'll try to capitalize on a big 2011 season and land a longer-term deal. But beware: Ramirez is 33, his defense already is poor and could result in a shift to first base. And yes, he was great from about June 1 on, but he's a pull hitter who had huge Wrigley Field splits. The wrong new home ballpark could cut those numbers down to size.
3. Jonathan Papelbon: The temptation will be for some team to give him a four-year deal at around his current $12-million-per rate. You can make the case that the numbers still are good, the velocity still is there, and he's only 30. But something says he won't remain worth that kind of money for much longer.
4. Grady Sizemore: Sad to say, but he's never going to be the player he was. There were some flashes in 2011, but a .224 batting average and .285 on-base percentage and continuing health issues made up the Indians' mind. And he was way more valuable to them than any other team.
5. Hiroki Kuroda: He's 36, doesn't really have an out pitch, and has flourished in part due to pitching in Dodger Stadium. Take him out of there, and other than perhaps San Diego or Oakland, you're asking for trouble.
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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45158948/ns/sports-baseball/
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